WR, Philadelphia Eagles
6
DeVonta Smith
20%
DeVonta Smith has a 20% chance to score a touchdown against Carolina Panthers in Week 6, the 132nd highest on this week's board. Philadelphia Eagles are projected for 17.8 points in 55°F with 5 mph wind. The model projects receptions 5.0, receiving yards 64.
Touchdown breakdown
17.8Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
10%Share of team TD chances
−15%CAR defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.10 × 0.85 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.15 expected TDs = 14% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 20% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
6DeVonta SmithWR, PHI vs CARReceptions: 5.0 proj, avg 5.2
38%
58.6Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›7.5Targets
›66%Catch rate
›4.9Model
›5.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+2%Game script
+3%CAR pass D
−8%CAR vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 2.1Avg line 5.5Projection 5.0Ceiling 7.8
The ring shows a
38% chance he goes over 5.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
6DeVonta SmithWR, PHI vs CARReceiving yards: 64 proj, avg 67
48%
58.6Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›7.5Targets
›66%Catch rate
›4.9Receptions
›12.9Yards per catch
›63Model
›64Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+2%Game script
+3%CAR pass D
−8%CAR vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 13Avg line 66.5Projection 64Ceiling 115
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 66.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 88% | 100% | – | – |
The matchup
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia EaglesSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Lincoln Financial Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.