WR, Philadelphia Eagles
9
Makai Lemon
14%
Makai Lemon has a 14% chance to score a touchdown against Carolina Panthers in Week 6, the 170th highest on this week's board. Philadelphia Eagles are projected for 20.0 points in 55°F with 5 mph wind. The model projects receptions 3.1, receiving yards 22.
Touchdown breakdown
20.0Projected team points
2.1Expected team TDs
5%Share of team TD chances
−15%CAR defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
2.1 × 0.05 × 0.85 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.10 expected TDs = 10% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 14% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
9Makai LemonWR, PHI vs CARReceptions: 3.1 proj, avg 3.0
38%
58.9Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.8Targets
›65%Catch rate
›3.2Model
›3.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+0%Game script
+3%CAR pass D
−8%CAR vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.9Avg line 3.5Projection 3.1Ceiling 5.4
The ring shows a
38% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
9Makai LemonWR, PHI vs CARReceiving yards: 22 proj, avg 22
53%
58.9Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.8Targets
›65%Catch rate
›3.2Receptions
›7.2Yards per catch
›23Model
›22Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+0%Game script
+3%CAR pass D
−8%CAR vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 21.5Projection 22Ceiling 40
The ring shows a
53% chance he goes over 21.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64% | 63% | 70% | 74% | 81% |
The matchup
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia EaglesSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Lincoln Financial Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.