RB, Philadelphia Eagles
26
Saquon Barkley
32%
Saquon Barkley has a 32% chance to score a touchdown against Carolina Panthers in Week 6, the 53rd highest on this week's board. Philadelphia Eagles are projected for 20.0 points in 55°F with 5 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 62.
Touchdown breakdown
20.0Projected team points
2.1Expected team TDs
13%Share of team TD chances
+8%CAR defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+8%Calibration vs real results
2.1 × 0.13 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.27 expected TDs = 24% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 32% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
26Saquon BarkleyRB, PHI vs CARRushing yards: 62 proj, avg 58
54%
58.9Projected plays
›41%Run rate
›24.0Team carries
›53%Carry share
›12.9Carries
›4.9Yards per carry
›63Model
›62Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
−0%Game script
+7%CAR run D
+2%CAR vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 22Avg line 58.5Projection 62Ceiling 102
The ring shows a
54% chance he goes over 58.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 16% | 72% | 7% | – |
The matchup
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia EaglesSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Lincoln Financial Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.