QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6
Baker Mayfield
10%
Baker Mayfield has a 10% chance to score a touchdown against Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 6, the 183rd highest on this week's board. Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected for 18.5 points in 77°F with 18 mph wind. The model projects passing yards 200, rushing yards 18.
Touchdown breakdown
18.5Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
5%Share of team TD chances
−23%PIT defense vs QBs
+3%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.05 × 0.77 × 1.03 × 0.92 =
0.07 expected TDs = 7% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 10% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
6Baker MayfieldQB, TB vs PITPassing yards: 200 proj, avg 212
39%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Pass attempts
›5.8Yards per attempt
›196Model
›200Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−2%PIT pass defense
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 144Avg line 212.5Projection 200Ceiling 257
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 212.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
6Baker MayfieldQB, TB vs PITRushing yards: 18 proj, avg 22
37%
59.0Projected plays
›43%Run rate
›25.4Team carries
›12%Carry share
›3.1Carries
›5.5Yards per carry
›17Model
›18Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−2%Game script
−2%PIT run D
−17%PIT vs QBs
+2%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 2Avg line 22.5Projection 18Ceiling 35
The ring shows a
37% chance he goes over 22.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 94% | – | – |
The matchup
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Raymond James Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.