RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7
Bucky Irving
48%
Bucky Irving has a 48% chance to score a touchdown against Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 6, the 13th highest on this week's board. Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected for 18.5 points in 77°F with 18 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 71, receptions 3.0, receiving yards 19.
Touchdown breakdown
18.5Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
27%Share of team TD chances
−2%PIT defense vs RBs
+3%Weather
+0%Usage trend
3TDs this season
+7%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.27 × 0.98 × 1.03 × 1.00 =
0.53 expected TDs = 41% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 48% chance to score. Rated elite.Player props
7Bucky IrvingRB, TB vs PITRushing yards: 71 proj, avg 72
48%
59.0Projected plays
›43%Run rate
›25.4Team carries
›61%Carry share
›15.6Carries
›4.5Yards per carry
›70Model
›71Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−2%Game script
−2%PIT run D
−1%PIT vs RBs
+2%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 25Avg line 72.5Projection 71Ceiling 116
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 72.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
7Bucky IrvingRB, TB vs PITReceptions: 3.0 proj, avg 3.0
35%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›11%Target share
›3.6Targets
›83%Catch rate
›3.0Model
›3.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−1%PIT vs RBs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.8Avg line 3.5Projection 3.0Ceiling 5.2
The ring shows a
35% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
7Bucky IrvingRB, TB vs PITReceiving yards: 19 proj, avg 20
47%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›11%Target share
›3.6Targets
›83%Catch rate
›3.0Receptions
›6.1Yards per catch
›18Model
›19Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−1%PIT vs RBs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 19.5Projection 19Ceiling 33
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 19.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61% | 78% | 52% | 59% | 54% |
The matchup
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Raymond James Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.