WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2
Emeka Egbuka
29%
Emeka Egbuka has a 29% chance to score a touchdown against Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 6, the 64th highest on this week's board. Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected for 18.5 points in 77°F with 18 mph wind. The model projects receptions 3.9, receiving yards 41.
Touchdown breakdown
18.5Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
18%Share of team TD chances
−13%PIT defense vs WRs
−8%Weather
+0%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.18 × 0.87 × 0.92 × 1.00 =
0.28 expected TDs = 25% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 29% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
2Emeka EgbukaWR, TB vs PITReceptions: 3.9 proj, avg 4.0
35%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›7.0Targets
›55%Catch rate
›3.8Model
›3.9Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−8%PIT vs WRs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 1.4Avg line 4.5Projection 3.9Ceiling 6.4
The ring shows a
35% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
2Emeka EgbukaWR, TB vs PITReceiving yards: 41 proj, avg 45
42%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›7.0Targets
›55%Catch rate
›3.8Receptions
›10.2Yards per catch
›39Model
›41Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−8%PIT vs WRs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 45.5Projection 41Ceiling 73
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 45.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 86% | 74% | 94% | 89% |
The matchup
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Raymond James Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.