TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
88
Cade Otton
17%
Cade Otton has a 17% chance to score a touchdown against Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 6, the 154th highest on this week's board. Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected for 18.5 points in 77°F with 18 mph wind. The model projects receptions 3.6, receiving yards 34.
Touchdown breakdown
18.5Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
6%Share of team TD chances
−4%PIT defense vs TEs
−8%Weather
−4%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+7%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.06 × 0.96 × 0.92 × 0.96 =
0.10 expected TDs = 10% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 17% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
88Cade OttonTE, TB vs PITReceptions: 3.6 proj, avg 3.7
48%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.2Targets
›68%Catch rate
›3.5Model
›3.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−2%PIT vs TEs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 1.2Avg line 3.5Projection 3.6Ceiling 6.0
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
88Cade OttonTE, TB vs PITReceiving yards: 34 proj, avg 37
44%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.2Targets
›68%Catch rate
›3.5Receptions
›9.3Yards per catch
›33Model
›34Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−2%PIT vs TEs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 37.5Projection 34Ceiling 61
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 37.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98% | 89% | 94% | 95% | 92% |
The matchup
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Raymond James Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.