WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
15
Tez Johnson
11%
Tez Johnson has a 11% chance to score a touchdown against Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 6, the 244th highest on this week's board. Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected for 18.5 points in 76°F with 18 mph wind. The model projects receiving yards 22.
Touchdown breakdown
18.5Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
6%Share of team TD chances
−13%PIT defense vs WRs
−8%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.06 × 0.87 × 0.92 × 0.92 =
0.09 expected TDs = 9% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 11% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
15Tez JohnsonWR, TB vs PITReceiving yards: 22 proj, avg 25
39%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›7%Target share
›2.3Targets
›52%Catch rate
›1.2Receptions
›17.5Yards per catch
›21Model
›22Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−8%PIT vs WRs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 25.5Projection 22Ceiling 39
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 25.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23% | 29% | 23% | 56% | 39% |
The matchup
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Raymond James Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.