WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
17
Ted Hurst III
14%
Ted Hurst III has a 14% chance to score a touchdown against Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 6, the 171st highest on this week's board. Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected for 18.5 points in 77°F with 18 mph wind. The model projects receptions 1.9, receiving yards 28.
Touchdown breakdown
18.5Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
−13%PIT defense vs WRs
−8%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.09 × 0.87 × 0.92 × 0.92 =
0.12 expected TDs = 12% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 14% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
17Ted Hurst IIIWR, TB vs PITReceptions: 1.9 proj, avg 2.0
28%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›11%Target share
›3.8Targets
›48%Catch rate
›1.8Model
›1.9Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−8%PIT vs WRs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.1Avg line 2.5Projection 1.9Ceiling 3.6
The ring shows a
28% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Ted Hurst IIIWR, TB vs PITReceiving yards: 28 proj, avg 32
39%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›11%Target share
›3.8Targets
›48%Catch rate
›1.8Receptions
›14.5Yards per catch
›26Model
›28Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−8%PIT vs WRs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 32.5Projection 28Ceiling 50
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 32.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 74% | 75% | 40% | 46% |
The matchup
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Raymond James Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.