RB, Los Angeles Rams
24
Blake Corum
27%
Blake Corum has a 27% chance to score a touchdown against Arizona Cardinals in Week 6, the 76th highest on this week's board. Los Angeles Rams are projected for 32.0 points indoors. The model projects rushing yards 43.
Touchdown breakdown
32.0Projected team points
3.4Expected team TDs
11%Share of team TD chances
−2%ARI defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
−1%Calibration vs real results
3.4 × 0.11 × 0.98 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.33 expected TDs = 28% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 27% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
24Blake CorumRB, LA vs ARIRushing yards: 43 proj, avg 39
57%
69.4Projected plays
›39%Run rate
›27.3Team carries
›31%Carry share
›8.5Carries
›5.2Yards per carry
›44Model
›43Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+13%Game script
+3%ARI run D
−1%ARI vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 16Avg line 39.5Projection 43Ceiling 71
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 39.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23% | 45% | 29% | 15% | 27% |
The matchup
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles RamsSun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET. SoFi Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.