TE, Los Angeles Rams
89
Tyler Higbee
29%
Tyler Higbee has a 29% chance to score a touchdown against Arizona Cardinals in Week 6, the 61st highest on this week's board. Los Angeles Rams are projected for 32.0 points indoors. The model projects receptions 4.0, receiving yards 49.
Touchdown breakdown
32.0Projected team points
3.4Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
+15%ARI defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
3.4 × 0.07 × 1.15 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.31 expected TDs = 27% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 29% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
89Tyler HigbeeTE, LA vs ARIReceptions: 4.0 proj, avg 3.9
57%
69.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›42.1Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›5.1Targets
›80%Catch rate
›4.0Model
›4.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−7%Game script
+4%ARI pass D
+8%ARI vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 1.4Avg line 3.5Projection 4.0Ceiling 6.6
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
89Tyler HigbeeTE, LA vs ARIReceiving yards: 49 proj, avg 44
57%
69.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›42.1Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›5.1Targets
›80%Catch rate
›4.0Receptions
›12.6Yards per catch
›51Model
›49Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−7%Game script
+4%ARI pass D
+8%ARI vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 10Avg line 43.5Projection 49Ceiling 88
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 43.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% | 26% | 71% | 65% | 67% |
The matchup
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles RamsSun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET. SoFi Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.