WR, Los Angeles Rams
4
Konata Mumpfield
21%
Konata Mumpfield has a 21% chance to score a touchdown against Arizona Cardinals in Week 6, the 117th highest on this week's board. Los Angeles Rams are projected for 32.0 points indoors. The model projects receiving yards 23.
Touchdown breakdown
32.0Projected team points
3.4Expected team TDs
6%Share of team TD chances
+28%ARI defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
−4%Calibration vs real results
3.4 × 0.06 × 1.28 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.28 expected TDs = 25% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 21% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
4Konata MumpfieldWR, LA vs ARIReceiving yards: 23 proj, avg 19
59%
69.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›42.1Team pass attempts
›7%Target share
›3.0Targets
›47%Catch rate
›1.4Receptions
›17.1Yards per catch
›24Model
›23Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−7%Game script
+4%ARI pass D
+16%ARI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 19.5Projection 23Ceiling 41
The ring shows a
59% chance he goes over 19.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26% | 69% | 73% | 27% | 7% |
The matchup
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles RamsSun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET. SoFi Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.