TE, Los Angeles Rams
84
Colby Parkinson
20%
Colby Parkinson has a 20% chance to score a touchdown against Arizona Cardinals in Week 6, the 130th highest on this week's board. Los Angeles Rams are projected for 32.3 points indoors. The model projects receptions 1.9, receiving yards 18.
Touchdown breakdown
32.3Projected team points
3.4Expected team TDs
6%Share of team TD chances
+15%ARI defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
3.4 × 0.06 × 1.15 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.20 expected TDs = 18% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 20% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
84Colby ParkinsonTE, LA vs ARIReceptions: 1.9 proj, avg 2.0
29%
69.5Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›42.2Team pass attempts
›6%Target share
›2.6Targets
›72%Catch rate
›1.8Model
›1.9Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−7%Game script
+4%ARI pass D
+8%ARI vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.1Avg line 2.5Projection 1.9Ceiling 3.6
The ring shows a
29% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
84Colby ParkinsonTE, LA vs ARIReceiving yards: 18 proj, avg 18
52%
69.5Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›42.2Team pass attempts
›6%Target share
›2.6Targets
›72%Catch rate
›1.8Receptions
›9.9Yards per catch
›18Model
›18Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−7%Game script
+4%ARI pass D
+8%ARI vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 17.5Projection 18Ceiling 32
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 17.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77% | 71% | 43% | – | 65% |
The matchup
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles RamsSun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET. SoFi Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.