RB, Los Angeles Rams
23
Kyren Williams
61%
Kyren Williams has a 61% chance to score a touchdown against Arizona Cardinals in Week 6, the 5th highest on this week's board. Los Angeles Rams are projected for 32.0 points indoors. The model projects rushing yards 83, receptions 4.0, receiving yards 31.
Touchdown breakdown
32.0Projected team points
3.4Expected team TDs
29%Share of team TD chances
−2%ARI defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
5TDs this season
−2%Calibration vs real results
3.4 × 0.29 × 0.98 × 1.00 × 1.04 =
0.99 expected TDs = 63% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 61% chance to score. Rated elite.Player props
23Kyren WilliamsRB, LA vs ARIRushing yards: 83 proj, avg 71
62%
69.4Projected plays
›39%Run rate
›27.3Team carries
›62%Carry share
›16.9Carries
›5.2Yards per carry
›88Model
›83Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+13%Game script
+3%ARI run D
−1%ARI vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 30Avg line 70.5Projection 83Ceiling 137
The ring shows a
62% chance he goes over 70.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
23Kyren WilliamsRB, LA vs ARIReceptions: 4.0 proj, avg 4.1
37%
69.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›42.1Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.9Targets
›80%Catch rate
›3.9Model
›4.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−7%Game script
+4%ARI pass D
−1%ARI vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 1.4Avg line 4.5Projection 4.0Ceiling 6.5
The ring shows a
37% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
23Kyren WilliamsRB, LA vs ARIReceiving yards: 31 proj, avg 31
52%
69.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›42.1Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.9Targets
›80%Catch rate
›3.9Receptions
›8.0Yards per catch
›32Model
›31Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−7%Game script
+4%ARI pass D
−1%ARI vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 30.5Projection 31Ceiling 56
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 30.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64% | 55% | 71% | 83% | 73% |
The matchup
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles RamsSun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET. SoFi Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.