QB, Los Angeles Rams
9
Matthew Stafford
12%
Matthew Stafford has a 12% chance to score a touchdown against Arizona Cardinals in Week 6, the 180th highest on this week's board. Los Angeles Rams are projected for 32.0 points indoors. The model projects passing yards 308.
Touchdown breakdown
32.0Projected team points
3.4Expected team TDs
4%Share of team TD chances
+0%ARI defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+0%Calibration vs real results
3.4 × 0.04 × 1.00 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.12 expected TDs = 11% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 12% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
9Matthew StaffordQB, LA vs ARIPassing yards: 308 proj, avg 299
55%
69.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›42.1Pass attempts
›7.4Yards per attempt
›311Model
›308Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−7%Game script
+7%ARI pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Dome
Floor 221Avg line 299.5Projection 308Ceiling 394
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 299.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
The matchup
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles RamsSun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET. SoFi Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.