WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
7
Brian Thomas Jr.
24%
Brian Thomas Jr. has a 24% chance to score a touchdown against Houston Texans in Week 6, the 101st highest on this week's board. Jacksonville Jaguars are projected for 22.5 points with the forecast still pending. The model projects receptions 2.4, receiving yards 33.
Touchdown breakdown
22.5Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
11%Share of team TD chances
+8%HOU defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.11 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.26 expected TDs = 23% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 24% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
7Brian Thomas Jr.WR, JAX vs HOUReceptions: 2.4 proj, avg 2.5
44%
58.8Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›4.5Targets
›53%Catch rate
›2.4Model
›2.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
+3%HOU pass D
+4%HOU vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.4Avg line 2.5Projection 2.4Ceiling 4.4
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
7Brian Thomas Jr.WR, JAX vs HOUReceiving yards: 33 proj, avg 33
52%
58.8Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›4.5Targets
›53%Catch rate
›2.4Receptions
›14.1Yards per catch
›34Model
›33Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
+3%HOU pass D
+4%HOU vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 32.5Projection 33Ceiling 60
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 32.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35% | 54% | 37% | 62% | 51% |
The matchup
Houston Texans at Jacksonville JaguarsSun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET. Wembley Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.