WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
3
Jakobi Meyers
28%
Jakobi Meyers has a 28% chance to score a touchdown against Houston Texans in Week 6, the 75th highest on this week's board. Jacksonville Jaguars are projected for 22.5 points with the forecast still pending. The model projects receptions 3.9, receiving yards 50.
Touchdown breakdown
22.5Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
12%Share of team TD chances
+8%HOU defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−1%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.12 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.33 expected TDs = 28% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 28% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
3Jakobi MeyersWR, JAX vs HOUReceptions: 3.9 proj, avg 3.7
55%
58.8Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›5.2Targets
›77%Catch rate
›4.0Model
›3.9Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
+3%HOU pass D
+4%HOU vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 1.4Avg line 3.5Projection 3.9Ceiling 6.5
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
3Jakobi MeyersWR, JAX vs HOUReceiving yards: 50 proj, avg 45
56%
58.8Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›5.2Targets
›77%Catch rate
›4.0Receptions
›13.1Yards per catch
›52Model
›50Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
+3%HOU pass D
+4%HOU vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 10Avg line 45.5Projection 50Ceiling 90
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 45.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65% | 90% | 81% | 82% | 85% |
The matchup
Houston Texans at Jacksonville JaguarsSun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET. Wembley Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.