WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
19
Josh Cameron
21%
Josh Cameron has a 21% chance to score a touchdown against Houston Texans in Week 6, the 115th highest on this week's board. Jacksonville Jaguars are projected for 22.5 points with the forecast still pending. The model projects receptions 2.1, receiving yards 33.
Touchdown breakdown
22.5Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
11%Share of team TD chances
+8%HOU defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−5%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.11 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.30 expected TDs = 26% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 21% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
19Josh CameronWR, JAX vs HOUReceptions: 2.1 proj, avg 2.0
36%
58.8Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.2Targets
›68%Catch rate
›2.2Model
›2.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
+3%HOU pass D
+4%HOU vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.3Avg line 2.5Projection 2.1Ceiling 4.0
The ring shows a
36% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
19Josh CameronWR, JAX vs HOUReceiving yards: 33 proj, avg 29
56%
58.8Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.2Targets
›68%Catch rate
›2.2Receptions
›15.6Yards per catch
›34Model
›33Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
+3%HOU pass D
+4%HOU vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 29.5Projection 33Ceiling 59
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 29.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33% | 17% | 37% | 36% | 31% |
The matchup
Houston Texans at Jacksonville JaguarsSun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET. Wembley Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.