QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
16
Trevor Lawrence
9%
Trevor Lawrence has a 9% chance to score a touchdown against Houston Texans in Week 6, the 185th highest on this week's board. Jacksonville Jaguars are projected for 22.5 points with the forecast still pending. The model projects passing yards 237.
Touchdown breakdown
22.5Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
2%Share of team TD chances
+23%HOU defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.02 × 1.23 × 1.00 × 1.04 =
0.06 expected TDs = 6% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 9% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
16Trevor LawrenceQB, JAX vs HOUPassing yards: 237 proj, avg 235
51%
58.8Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›30.6Pass attempts
›7.8Yards per attempt
›238Model
›237Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
−0%HOU pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 170Avg line 235.5Projection 237Ceiling 304
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 235.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 100% | 95% | 100% | 100% |
The matchup
Houston Texans at Jacksonville JaguarsSun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET. Wembley Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.