RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
24
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
17%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. has a 17% chance to score a touchdown against Houston Texans in Week 6, the 149th highest on this week's board. Jacksonville Jaguars are projected for 22.5 points with the forecast still pending. The model projects rushing yards 21.
Touchdown breakdown
22.5Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
14%Share of team TD chances
−8%HOU defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−9%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.14 × 0.92 × 1.00 × 0.96 =
0.30 expected TDs = 26% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 17% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
24Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB, JAX vs HOURushing yards: 21 proj, avg 23
46%
58.8Projected plays
›48%Run rate
›28.1Team carries
›20%Carry share
›5.6Carries
›3.7Yards per carry
›21Model
›21Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+2%Game script
−7%HOU run D
−2%HOU vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 22.5Projection 21Ceiling 35
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 22.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40% | 22% | 21% | 25% | 12% |
The matchup
Houston Texans at Jacksonville JaguarsSun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET. Wembley Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.