WR, Tennessee Titans
0
Calvin Ridley
11%
Calvin Ridley has a 11% chance to score a touchdown against Indianapolis Colts in Week 6, the 243rd highest on this week's board. Tennessee Titans are projected for 18.8 points indoors. The model projects receptions 2.0, receiving yards 37.
Touchdown breakdown
18.8Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
4%Share of team TD chances
−3%IND defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.04 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.09 expected TDs = 9% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 11% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
0Calvin RidleyWR, TEN vs INDReceptions: 2.0 proj, avg 1.8
59%
57.6Projected plays
›63%Pass rate
›36.6Team pass attempts
›11%Target share
›4.2Targets
›50%Catch rate
›2.1Model
›2.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
+4%Game script
+6%IND pass D
−2%IND vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.2Avg line 1.5Projection 2.0Ceiling 3.8
The ring shows a
59% chance he goes over 1.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
0Calvin RidleyWR, TEN vs INDReceiving yards: 37 proj, avg 32
60%
57.6Projected plays
›63%Pass rate
›36.6Team pass attempts
›11%Target share
›4.2Targets
›50%Catch rate
›2.1Receptions
›18.9Yards per catch
›39Model
›37Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
+4%Game script
+6%IND pass D
−2%IND vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 31.5Projection 37Ceiling 67
The ring shows a
60% chance he goes over 31.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64% | 62% | 33% | 47% | 56% |
The matchup
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis ColtsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Lucas Oil Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.