RB, Tennessee Titans
20
Tony Pollard
44%
Tony Pollard has a 44% chance to score a touchdown against Indianapolis Colts in Week 6, the 19th highest on this week's board. Tennessee Titans are projected for 18.5 points indoors. The model projects rushing yards 63.
Touchdown breakdown
18.5Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
26%Share of team TD chances
+8%IND defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+0%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.26 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 1.04 =
0.57 expected TDs = 44% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 44% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
20Tony PollardRB, TEN vs INDRushing yards: 63 proj, avg 58
56%
57.5Projected plays
›37%Run rate
›21.0Team carries
›67%Carry share
›14.0Carries
›4.6Yards per carry
›65Model
›63Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
−6%Game script
+5%IND run D
+2%IND vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 23Avg line 58.5Projection 63Ceiling 103
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 58.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52% | 55% | 53% | 53% | 48% |
The matchup
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis ColtsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Lucas Oil Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.