WR, Tennessee Titans
14
Carnell Tate
19%
Carnell Tate has a 19% chance to score a touchdown against Indianapolis Colts in Week 6, the 131st highest on this week's board. Tennessee Titans are projected for 18.5 points indoors. The model projects receptions 5.0, receiving yards 63.
Touchdown breakdown
18.5Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
−3%IND defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.07 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.04 =
0.14 expected TDs = 13% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 19% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
14Carnell TateWR, TEN vs INDReceptions: 5.0 proj, avg 4.6
56%
57.5Projected plays
›63%Pass rate
›36.5Team pass attempts
›23%Target share
›8.3Targets
›62%Catch rate
›5.1Model
›5.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
+4%Game script
+6%IND pass D
−2%IND vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 2.1Avg line 4.5Projection 5.0Ceiling 7.8
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Carnell TateWR, TEN vs INDReceiving yards: 63 proj, avg 55
58%
57.5Projected plays
›63%Pass rate
›36.5Team pass attempts
›23%Target share
›8.3Targets
›62%Catch rate
›5.1Receptions
›12.8Yards per catch
›65Model
›63Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
+4%Game script
+6%IND pass D
−2%IND vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 13Avg line 54.5Projection 63Ceiling 112
The ring shows a
58% chance he goes over 54.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 75% | 88% | 84% | 76% |
The matchup
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis ColtsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Lucas Oil Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.