WR, Tennessee Titans
5
Elic Ayomanor
20%
Elic Ayomanor has a 20% chance to score a touchdown against Indianapolis Colts in Week 6, the 124th highest on this week's board. Tennessee Titans are projected for 18.5 points indoors. The model projects receptions 1.7, receiving yards 30.
Touchdown breakdown
18.5Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
13%Share of team TD chances
−3%IND defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
−1%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.13 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.23 expected TDs = 21% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 20% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
5Elic AyomanorWR, TEN vs INDReceptions: 1.7 proj, avg 1.7
51%
57.5Projected plays
›63%Pass rate
›36.5Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.8Targets
›46%Catch rate
›1.7Model
›1.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
+4%Game script
+6%IND pass D
−2%IND vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.0Avg line 1.5Projection 1.7Ceiling 3.4
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 1.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
5Elic AyomanorWR, TEN vs INDReceiving yards: 30 proj, avg 29
54%
57.5Projected plays
›63%Pass rate
›36.5Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.8Targets
›46%Catch rate
›1.7Receptions
›18.0Yards per catch
›31Model
›30Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
+4%Game script
+6%IND pass D
−2%IND vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 28.5Projection 30Ceiling 54
The ring shows a
54% chance he goes over 28.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52% | 53% | 80% | 62% | 52% |
The matchup
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis ColtsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Lucas Oil Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.