TE, Tennessee Titans
84
Gunnar Helm
18%
Gunnar Helm has a 18% chance to score a touchdown against Indianapolis Colts in Week 6, the 136th highest on this week's board. Tennessee Titans are projected for 18.5 points indoors. The model projects receptions 2.3, receiving yards 19.
Touchdown breakdown
18.5Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
+15%IND defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.08 × 1.15 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.17 expected TDs = 16% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 18% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
84Gunnar HelmTE, TEN vs INDReceptions: 2.3 proj, avg 2.2
41%
57.5Projected plays
›63%Pass rate
›36.5Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.2Targets
›74%Catch rate
›2.3Model
›2.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
+4%Game script
+6%IND pass D
+8%IND vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.4Avg line 2.5Projection 2.3Ceiling 4.3
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
84Gunnar HelmTE, TEN vs INDReceiving yards: 19 proj, avg 16
57%
57.5Projected plays
›63%Pass rate
›36.5Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.2Targets
›74%Catch rate
›2.3Receptions
›8.2Yards per catch
›19Model
›19Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
+4%Game script
+6%IND pass D
+8%IND vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 16.5Projection 19Ceiling 33
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 16.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76% | 87% | 82% | 72% | 71% |
The matchup
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis ColtsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Lucas Oil Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.