QB, Tennessee Titans
1
Cam Ward
20%
Cam Ward has a 20% chance to score a touchdown against Indianapolis Colts in Week 6, the 123rd highest on this week's board. Tennessee Titans are projected for 18.5 points indoors. The model projects passing yards 203.
Touchdown breakdown
18.5Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
14%Share of team TD chances
+0%IND defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−3%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.14 × 1.00 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.26 expected TDs = 23% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 20% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
1Cam WardQB, TEN vs INDPassing yards: 203 proj, avg 182
68%
57.5Projected plays
›63%Pass rate
›36.5Pass attempts
›5.8Yards per attempt
›211Model
›203Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
+4%Game script
+4%IND pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Dome
Floor 146Avg line 182.5Projection 203Ceiling 261
The ring shows a
68% chance he goes over 182.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
The matchup
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis ColtsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Lucas Oil Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.