RB, New England Patriots
9
Corey Kiner
16%
Corey Kiner has a 16% chance to score a touchdown against New York Jets in Week 6, the 180th highest on this week's board. New England Patriots are projected for 25.3 points in 51°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 22.
Touchdown breakdown
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
+8%NYJ defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
0TDs this season
−6%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.09 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.25 expected TDs = 22% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 16% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
9Corey KinerRB, NE vs NYJRushing yards: 22 proj, avg 20
55%
61.2Projected plays
›48%Run rate
›29.7Team carries
›17%Carry share
›5.1Carries
›4.4Yards per carry
›22Model
›22Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
+2%NYJ run D
+2%NYJ vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 20.5Projection 22Ceiling 36
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 20.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11% | 7% | 13% | 3% | 20% |
The matchup
New York Jets at New England PatriotsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Gillette Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.