WR, New England Patriots
18
Kyle Williams
15%
Kyle Williams has a 15% chance to score a touchdown against New York Jets in Week 6, the 198th highest on this week's board. New England Patriots are projected for 25.3 points in 51°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects receiving yards 24.
Touchdown breakdown
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
6%Share of team TD chances
−3%NYJ defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
−1%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.06 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.17 expected TDs = 16% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 15% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
18Kyle WilliamsWR, NE vs NYJReceiving yards: 24 proj, avg 25
48%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›7%Target share
›2.1Targets
›47%Catch rate
›1.0Receptions
›23.9Yards per catch
›23Model
›24Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
−2%NYJ vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 24.5Projection 24Ceiling 43
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 24.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17% | 20% | 35% | 25% | 36% |
The matchup
New York Jets at New England PatriotsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Gillette Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.