TE, New England Patriots
85
Hunter Henry
22%
Hunter Henry has a 22% chance to score a touchdown against New York Jets in Week 6, the 112th highest on this week's board. New England Patriots are projected for 25.3 points in 50°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects receptions 2.8, receiving yards 32.
Touchdown breakdown
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
10%Share of team TD chances
−23%NYJ defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.10 × 0.77 × 1.00 × 0.96 =
0.19 expected TDs = 17% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 22% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
85Hunter HenryTE, NE vs NYJReceptions: 2.8 proj, avg 3.2
31%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›3.9Targets
›70%Catch rate
›2.7Model
›2.8Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
−13%NYJ vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.7Avg line 3.5Projection 2.8Ceiling 5.0
The ring shows a
31% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
85Hunter HenryTE, NE vs NYJReceiving yards: 32 proj, avg 39
36%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›3.9Targets
›70%Catch rate
›2.7Receptions
›11.1Yards per catch
›30Model
›32Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
−13%NYJ vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 39.5Projection 32Ceiling 58
The ring shows a
36% chance he goes over 39.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76% | 91% | 70% | 64% | 64% |
The matchup
New York Jets at New England PatriotsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Gillette Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.