RB, New England Patriots
38
Rhamondre Stevenson
45%
Rhamondre Stevenson has a 45% chance to score a touchdown against New York Jets in Week 6, the 18th highest on this week's board. New England Patriots are projected for 25.3 points in 50°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 47, receptions 2.5, receiving yards 22.
Touchdown breakdown
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
21%Share of team TD chances
+8%NYJ defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.21 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 0.96 =
0.58 expected TDs = 44% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 45% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
38Rhamondre StevensonRB, NE vs NYJRushing yards: 47 proj, avg 45
54%
61.2Projected plays
›48%Run rate
›29.7Team carries
›35%Carry share
›10.5Carries
›4.5Yards per carry
›48Model
›47Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
+2%NYJ run D
+2%NYJ vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 17Avg line 44.5Projection 47Ceiling 77
The ring shows a
54% chance he goes over 44.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
38Rhamondre StevensonRB, NE vs NYJReceptions: 2.5 proj, avg 2.7
47%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.1Targets
›79%Catch rate
›2.5Model
›2.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
+5%NYJ vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.5Avg line 2.5Projection 2.5Ceiling 4.6
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
38Rhamondre StevensonRB, NE vs NYJReceiving yards: 22 proj, avg 23
45%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.1Targets
›79%Catch rate
›2.5Receptions
›8.5Yards per catch
›21Model
›22Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
+5%NYJ vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 23.5Projection 22Ceiling 39
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 23.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 36% | 52% | 66% | 71% |
The matchup
New York Jets at New England PatriotsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Gillette Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.