WR, New England Patriots
3
DeMario Douglas
23%
DeMario Douglas has a 23% chance to score a touchdown against New York Jets in Week 6, the 103rd highest on this week's board. New England Patriots are projected for 25.3 points in 50°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects receptions 2.1, receiving yards 26.
Touchdown breakdown
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
11%Share of team TD chances
−3%NYJ defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−1%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.11 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 0.96 =
0.27 expected TDs = 24% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 23% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
3DeMario DouglasWR, NE vs NYJReceptions: 2.1 proj, avg 2.3
35%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›11%Target share
›3.4Targets
›60%Catch rate
›2.1Model
›2.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
−2%NYJ vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.3Avg line 2.5Projection 2.1Ceiling 4.0
The ring shows a
35% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
3DeMario DouglasWR, NE vs NYJReceiving yards: 26 proj, avg 29
43%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›11%Target share
›3.4Targets
›60%Catch rate
›2.1Receptions
›12.0Yards per catch
›25Model
›26Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
−2%NYJ vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 28.5Projection 26Ceiling 46
The ring shows a
43% chance he goes over 28.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62% | 47% | 59% | 46% | 49% |
The matchup
New York Jets at New England PatriotsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Gillette Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.