TE, New England Patriots
82
Eli Raridon
18%
Eli Raridon has a 18% chance to score a touchdown against New York Jets in Week 6, the 157th highest on this week's board. New England Patriots are projected for 25.3 points in 51°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects receptions 1.9, receiving yards 22.
Touchdown breakdown
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
−23%NYJ defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+0%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.09 × 0.77 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.20 expected TDs = 18% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 18% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
82Eli RaridonTE, NE vs NYJReceptions: 1.9 proj, avg 2.0
29%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›7%Target share
›2.2Targets
›85%Catch rate
›1.8Model
›1.9Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
−13%NYJ vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.1Avg line 2.5Projection 1.9Ceiling 3.6
The ring shows a
29% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
82Eli RaridonTE, NE vs NYJReceiving yards: 22 proj, avg 25
40%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›7%Target share
›2.2Targets
›85%Catch rate
›1.8Receptions
›11.4Yards per catch
›21Model
›22Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
−13%NYJ vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 25.5Projection 22Ceiling 39
The ring shows a
40% chance he goes over 25.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54% | 20% | – | 58% | 57% |
The matchup
New York Jets at New England PatriotsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Gillette Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.