RB, Chicago Bears
4
D'Andre Swift
50%
D'Andre Swift has a 50% chance to score a touchdown against Atlanta Falcons in Week 6, the 12th highest on this week's board. Chicago Bears are projected for 26.3 points indoors. The model projects rushing yards 65, receptions 2.4, receiving yards 21.
Touchdown breakdown
26.3Projected team points
2.8Expected team TDs
27%Share of team TD chances
−2%ATL defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
4TDs this season
+0%Calibration vs real results
2.8 × 0.27 × 0.98 × 1.00 × 0.96 =
0.69 expected TDs = 50% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 50% chance to score. Rated elite.Player props
4D'Andre SwiftRB, CHI vs ATLRushing yards: 65 proj, avg 70
44%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Run rate
›34.6Team carries
›41%Carry share
›14.2Carries
›4.4Yards per carry
›63Model
›65Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
−6%ATL run D
−1%ATL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 23Avg line 69.5Projection 65Ceiling 106
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 69.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4D'Andre SwiftRB, CHI vs ATLReceptions: 2.4 proj, avg 2.5
42%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›8%Target share
›2.9Targets
›80%Catch rate
›2.3Model
›2.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
−1%ATL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.4Avg line 2.5Projection 2.4Ceiling 4.3
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4D'Andre SwiftRB, CHI vs ATLReceiving yards: 21 proj, avg 21
51%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›8%Target share
›2.9Targets
›80%Catch rate
›2.3Receptions
›8.9Yards per catch
›21Model
›21Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
−1%ATL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 20.5Projection 21Ceiling 37
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 20.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 68% | 69% | 35% | 58% |
The matchup
Chicago Bears at Atlanta FalconsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.