WR, Chicago Bears
15
Rome Odunze
24%
Rome Odunze has a 24% chance to score a touchdown against Atlanta Falcons in Week 6, the 96th highest on this week's board. Chicago Bears are projected for 26.3 points indoors. The model projects receptions 3.5, receiving yards 58.
Touchdown breakdown
26.3Projected team points
2.8Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
−3%ATL defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.8 × 0.08 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.23 expected TDs = 21% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 24% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
15Rome OdunzeWR, CHI vs ATLReceptions: 3.5 proj, avg 3.5
47%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›19%Target share
›6.6Targets
›53%Catch rate
›3.5Model
›3.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
−2%ATL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 1.1Avg line 3.5Projection 3.5Ceiling 5.9
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
15Rome OdunzeWR, CHI vs ATLReceiving yards: 58 proj, avg 55
54%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›19%Target share
›6.6Targets
›53%Catch rate
›3.5Receptions
›16.7Yards per catch
›59Model
›58Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
−2%ATL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 12Avg line 54.5Projection 58Ceiling 104
The ring shows a
54% chance he goes over 54.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48% | 84% | 85% | 89% | 99% |
The matchup
Chicago Bears at Atlanta FalconsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.