RB, Chicago Bears
25
Kyle Monangai
37%
Kyle Monangai has a 37% chance to score a touchdown against Atlanta Falcons in Week 6, the 34th highest on this week's board. Chicago Bears are projected for 26.3 points indoors. The model projects rushing yards 60.
Touchdown breakdown
26.3Projected team points
2.8Expected team TDs
19%Share of team TD chances
−2%ATL defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
3TDs this season
−3%Calibration vs real results
2.8 × 0.19 × 0.98 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.52 expected TDs = 41% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 37% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
25Kyle MonangaiRB, CHI vs ATLRushing yards: 60 proj, avg 64
46%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Run rate
›34.6Team carries
›35%Carry share
›12.3Carries
›4.8Yards per carry
›59Model
›60Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
−6%ATL run D
−1%ATL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 22Avg line 63.5Projection 60Ceiling 99
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 63.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43% | 34% | 31% | 54% | – |
The matchup
Chicago Bears at Atlanta FalconsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.