WR, Chicago Bears
10
Luther Burden III
33%
Luther Burden III has a 33% chance to score a touchdown against Atlanta Falcons in Week 6, the 50th highest on this week's board. Chicago Bears are projected for 26.3 points indoors. The model projects receptions 3.9, receiving yards 51.
Touchdown breakdown
26.3Projected team points
2.8Expected team TDs
11%Share of team TD chances
−3%ATL defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
2.8 × 0.11 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.04 =
0.31 expected TDs = 27% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 33% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
10Luther Burden IIIWR, CHI vs ATLReceptions: 3.9 proj, avg 4.0
36%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.7Targets
›68%Catch rate
›3.9Model
›3.9Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
−2%ATL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 1.4Avg line 4.5Projection 3.9Ceiling 6.5
The ring shows a
36% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Luther Burden IIIWR, CHI vs ATLReceiving yards: 51 proj, avg 49
52%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.7Targets
›68%Catch rate
›3.9Receptions
›13.1Yards per catch
›52Model
›51Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
−2%ATL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 11Avg line 49.5Projection 51Ceiling 92
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 49.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73% | 57% | 61% | 56% | 77% |
The matchup
Chicago Bears at Atlanta FalconsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.