WR, Chicago Bears
14
Kalif Raymond
22%
Kalif Raymond has a 22% chance to score a touchdown against Atlanta Falcons in Week 6, the 113th highest on this week's board. Chicago Bears are projected for 26.3 points indoors. The model projects receptions 4.4, receiving yards 44.
Touchdown breakdown
26.3Projected team points
2.8Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
−3%ATL defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
2.8 × 0.08 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.19 expected TDs = 18% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 22% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
14Kalif RaymondWR, CHI vs ATLReceptions: 4.4 proj, avg 4.8
45%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.9Targets
›88%Catch rate
›4.3Model
›4.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
−2%ATL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 1.7Avg line 4.5Projection 4.4Ceiling 7.1
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Kalif RaymondWR, CHI vs ATLReceiving yards: 44 proj, avg 45
47%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.9Targets
›88%Catch rate
›4.3Receptions
›10.0Yards per catch
›43Model
›44Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
−2%ATL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 45.5Projection 44Ceiling 78
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 45.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 62% | 75% | 51% | 68% |
The matchup
Chicago Bears at Atlanta FalconsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.