QB, San Francisco 49ers
13
Brock Purdy
18%
Brock Purdy has a 18% chance to score a touchdown against Washington Commanders in Week 6, the 140th highest on this week's board. San Francisco 49ers are projected for 29.0 points in 63°F with 13 mph wind. The model projects passing yards 262, rushing yards 24.
Touchdown breakdown
29.0Projected team points
3.0Expected team TDs
5%Share of team TD chances
+0%WAS defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
3.0 × 0.05 × 1.00 × 1.00 × 1.04 =
0.17 expected TDs = 15% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 18% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
13Brock PurdyQB, SF vs WASPassing yards: 262 proj, avg 240
65%
58.7Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›29.0Pass attempts
›9.3Yards per attempt
›269Model
›262Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−5%Game script
+9%WAS pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 188Avg line 239.5Projection 262Ceiling 335
The ring shows a
65% chance he goes over 239.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
13Brock PurdyQB, SF vs WASRushing yards: 24 proj, avg 22
56%
58.7Projected plays
›51%Run rate
›29.7Team carries
›18%Carry share
›5.2Carries
›4.7Yards per carry
›25Model
›24Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+5%Game script
−4%WAS run D
+0%WAS vs QBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 3Avg line 21.5Projection 24Ceiling 46
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 21.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 85% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
The matchup
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ersMon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET. Levi's Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.