WR, Indianapolis Colts
10
Keenan Allen
29%
Keenan Allen has a 29% chance to score a touchdown against Tennessee Titans in Week 6, the 70th highest on this week's board. Indianapolis Colts are projected for 25.5 points indoors. The model projects receptions 4.2, receiving yards 34.
Touchdown breakdown
25.5Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
12%Share of team TD chances
−3%TEN defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.12 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.32 expected TDs = 27% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 29% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
10Keenan AllenWR, IND vs TENReceptions: 4.2 proj, avg 4.5
41%
61.1Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›33.9Team pass attempts
›19%Target share
›6.6Targets
›62%Catch rate
›4.1Model
›4.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−4%Game script
−1%TEN pass D
−2%TEN vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 1.6Avg line 4.5Projection 4.2Ceiling 6.8
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Keenan AllenWR, IND vs TENReceiving yards: 34 proj, avg 36
45%
61.1Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›33.9Team pass attempts
›19%Target share
›6.6Targets
›62%Catch rate
›4.1Receptions
›8.2Yards per catch
›33Model
›34Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−4%Game script
−1%TEN pass D
−2%TEN vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 36.5Projection 34Ceiling 61
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 36.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 51% | 73% | – | 45% |
The matchup
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis ColtsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Lucas Oil Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.