WR, San Francisco 49ers
5
Mike Evans
38%
Mike Evans has a 38% chance to score a touchdown against Washington Commanders in Week 6, the 33rd highest on this week's board. San Francisco 49ers are projected for 29.0 points in 63°F with 13 mph wind. The model projects receptions 5.2, receiving yards 77.
Touchdown breakdown
29.0Projected team points
3.0Expected team TDs
16%Share of team TD chances
+13%WAS defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
4TDs this season
−7%Calibration vs real results
3.0 × 0.16 × 1.13 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.59 expected TDs = 44% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 38% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
5Mike EvansWR, SF vs WASReceptions: 5.2 proj, avg 4.8
59%
58.7Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›29.0Team pass attempts
›26%Target share
›7.5Targets
›71%Catch rate
›5.3Model
›5.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−5%Game script
+6%WAS pass D
+7%WAS vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 2.3Avg line 4.5Projection 5.2Ceiling 8.1
The ring shows a
59% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
5Mike EvansWR, SF vs WASReceiving yards: 77 proj, avg 65
60%
58.7Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›29.0Team pass attempts
›26%Target share
›7.5Targets
›71%Catch rate
›5.3Receptions
›15.2Yards per catch
›81Model
›77Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−5%Game script
+6%WAS pass D
+7%WAS vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 16Avg line 65.5Projection 77Ceiling 138
The ring shows a
60% chance he goes over 65.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 54% | 33% | 59% | 63% |
The matchup
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ersMon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET. Levi's Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.