TE, San Francisco 49ers
85
George Kittle
41%
George Kittle has a 41% chance to score a touchdown against Washington Commanders in Week 6, the 25th highest on this week's board. San Francisco 49ers are projected for 29.0 points in 63°F with 13 mph wind. The model projects receptions 5.2, receiving yards 72.
Touchdown breakdown
29.0Projected team points
3.0Expected team TDs
13%Share of team TD chances
+43%WAS defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
4TDs this season
−4%Calibration vs real results
3.0 × 0.13 × 1.43 × 1.00 × 1.04 =
0.59 expected TDs = 44% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 41% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
85George KittleTE, SF vs WASReceptions: 5.2 proj, avg 4.6
59%
58.7Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›29.0Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›6.2Targets
›88%Catch rate
›5.4Model
›5.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−5%Game script
+6%WAS pass D
+25%WAS vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 2.3Avg line 4.5Projection 5.2Ceiling 8.1
The ring shows a
59% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
85George KittleTE, SF vs WASReceiving yards: 72 proj, avg 55
64%
58.7Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›29.0Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›6.2Targets
›88%Catch rate
›5.4Receptions
›14.4Yards per catch
›78Model
›72Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−5%Game script
+6%WAS pass D
+25%WAS vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 15Avg line 55.5Projection 72Ceiling 129
The ring shows a
64% chance he goes over 55.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46% | 48% | 85% | 91% | 92% |
The matchup
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ersMon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET. Levi's Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.