RB, San Francisco 49ers
26
Kaelon Black
16%
Kaelon Black has a 16% chance to score a touchdown against Washington Commanders in Week 6, the 159th highest on this week's board. San Francisco 49ers are projected for 29.0 points in 63°F with 13 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 27.
Touchdown breakdown
29.0Projected team points
3.0Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
−13%WAS defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
−3%Calibration vs real results
3.0 × 0.08 × 0.87 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.21 expected TDs = 19% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 16% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
26Kaelon BlackRB, SF vs WASRushing yards: 27 proj, avg 27
49%
58.7Projected plays
›51%Run rate
›29.7Team carries
›26%Carry share
›7.8Carries
›3.5Yards per carry
›27Model
›27Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+5%Game script
−4%WAS run D
−4%WAS vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 10Avg line 27.5Projection 27Ceiling 44
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 27.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43% | 33% | 15% | 26% | 18% |
The matchup
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ersMon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET. Levi's Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.