WR, San Francisco 49ers
17
Jordan Watkins
17%
Jordan Watkins has a 17% chance to score a touchdown against Washington Commanders in Week 6, the 162nd highest on this week's board. San Francisco 49ers are projected for 29.8 points in 63°F with 13 mph wind. The model projects receptions 2.3, receiving yards 75.
Touchdown breakdown
29.8Projected team points
3.1Expected team TDs
6%Share of team TD chances
+13%WAS defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
−3%Calibration vs real results
3.1 × 0.06 × 1.13 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.23 expected TDs = 20% raw, calibrated against 4,223 past player-games to 17% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
17Jordan WatkinsWR, SF vs WASExpanded role, D. Samuel Sr. outReceptions: 2.3 proj, avg 2.3
40%
58.9Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›29.1Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›2.5Targets
›92%Catch rate
›2.3Model
›2.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−5%Game script
+6%WAS pass D
+8%WAS vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.4Avg line 2.5Projection 2.3Ceiling 4.2
The ring shows a
40% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Jordan WatkinsWR, SF vs WASExpanded role, D. Samuel Sr. outReceiving yards: 75 proj, avg 69
55%
58.9Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›29.1Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›2.5Targets
›92%Catch rate
›2.3Receptions
›33.7Yards per catch
›77Model
›75Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−5%Game script
+6%WAS pass D
+8%WAS vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 15Avg line 69.5Projection 75Ceiling 135
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 69.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 | Wk 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | – | 28% | 38% | 37% | Bye |
The matchup
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ersMon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET. Levi's Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.