RB, San Francisco 49ers
23
Christian McCaffrey
59%
Christian McCaffrey has a 59% chance to score a touchdown against Washington Commanders in Week 6, the 6th highest on this week's board. San Francisco 49ers are projected for 29.0 points in 63°F with 13 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 67, receptions 4.7, receiving yards 39.
Touchdown breakdown
29.0Projected team points
3.0Expected team TDs
29%Share of team TD chances
−13%WAS defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
5TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
3.0 × 0.29 × 0.87 × 1.00 × 1.04 =
0.81 expected TDs = 55% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 59% chance to score. Rated elite.Player props
23Christian McCaffreyRB, SF vs WASRushing yards: 67 proj, avg 63
55%
58.7Projected plays
›51%Run rate
›29.7Team carries
›57%Carry share
›16.9Carries
›4.0Yards per carry
›68Model
›67Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+5%Game script
−4%WAS run D
−4%WAS vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 24Avg line 62.5Projection 67Ceiling 110
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 62.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
23Christian McCaffreyRB, SF vs WASReceptions: 4.7 proj, avg 4.7
51%
58.7Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›29.0Team pass attempts
›22%Target share
›6.3Targets
›76%Catch rate
›4.7Model
›4.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−5%Game script
+6%WAS pass D
−7%WAS vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 1.9Avg line 4.5Projection 4.7Ceiling 7.5
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
23Christian McCaffreyRB, SF vs WASReceiving yards: 39 proj, avg 38
52%
58.7Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›29.0Team pass attempts
›22%Target share
›6.3Targets
›76%Catch rate
›4.7Receptions
›8.3Yards per catch
›39Model
›39Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−5%Game script
+6%WAS pass D
−7%WAS vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 37.5Projection 39Ceiling 70
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 37.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55% | 52% | 83% | 74% | 82% |
The matchup
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ersMon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET. Levi's Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.