TE, Los Angeles Chargers
88
Charlie Kolar
12%
Charlie Kolar has a 12% chance to score a touchdown against Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6, the 228th highest on this week's board. Los Angeles Chargers are projected for 16.8 points in 67°F with 12 mph wind. The model projects receptions 3.2, receiving yards 32.
Touchdown breakdown
16.8Projected team points
1.8Expected team TDs
4%Share of team TD chances
+21%KC defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
1.8 × 0.04 × 1.21 × 1.00 × 0.96 =
0.08 expected TDs = 7% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 12% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
88Charlie KolarTE, LAC vs KCReceptions: 3.2 proj, avg 3.0
39%
60.7Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.2Team pass attempts
›11%Target share
›3.6Targets
›91%Catch rate
›3.2Model
›3.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
+12%KC vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.9Avg line 3.5Projection 3.2Ceiling 5.5
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
88Charlie KolarTE, LAC vs KCReceiving yards: 32 proj, avg 29
56%
60.7Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.2Team pass attempts
›11%Target share
›3.6Targets
›91%Catch rate
›3.2Receptions
›10.4Yards per catch
›33Model
›32Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
+12%KC vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 29.5Projection 32Ceiling 58
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 29.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55% | 62% | – | – | 76% |
The matchup
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City ChiefsSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.