WR, Los Angeles Chargers
9
Tre Harris
15%
Tre Harris has a 15% chance to score a touchdown against Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6, the 162nd highest on this week's board. Los Angeles Chargers are projected for 17.3 points in 67°F with 12 mph wind. The model projects receptions 2.5, receiving yards 34.
Touchdown breakdown
17.3Projected team points
1.8Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
−20%KC defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
1.8 × 0.09 × 0.80 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.13 expected TDs = 12% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 15% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
9Tre HarrisWR, LAC vs KCReceptions: 2.5 proj, avg 2.5
45%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.3Targets
›57%Catch rate
›2.5Model
›2.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
−12%KC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.5Avg line 2.5Projection 2.5Ceiling 4.5
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
9Tre HarrisWR, LAC vs KCReceiving yards: 34 proj, avg 35
46%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.3Targets
›57%Catch rate
›2.5Receptions
›13.4Yards per catch
›33Model
›34Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
−12%KC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 35.5Projection 34Ceiling 60
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 35.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 82% | 58% | 93% | 45% |
The matchup
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City ChiefsSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.