RB, Los Angeles Chargers
34
Keaton Mitchell
27%
Keaton Mitchell has a 27% chance to score a touchdown against Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6, the 81st highest on this week's board. Los Angeles Chargers are projected for 17.3 points in 67°F with 12 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 26, receptions 2.6.
Touchdown breakdown
17.3Projected team points
1.8Expected team TDs
14%Share of team TD chances
−3%KC defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
1.8 × 0.14 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.27 expected TDs = 23% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 27% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
34Keaton MitchellRB, LAC vs KCRushing yards: 26 proj, avg 27
45%
60.8Projected plays
›45%Run rate
›27.5Team carries
›24%Carry share
›6.6Carries
›3.9Yards per carry
›25Model
›26Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
−6%Game script
−5%KC run D
−1%KC vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 27.5Projection 26Ceiling 42
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 27.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
34Keaton MitchellRB, LAC vs KCReceptions: 2.6 proj, avg 2.4
48%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.1Targets
›85%Catch rate
›2.7Model
›2.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
−2%KC vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.5Avg line 2.5Projection 2.6Ceiling 4.6
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31% | 25% | 38% | 37% | 34% |
The matchup
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City ChiefsSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.