RB, Los Angeles Chargers
8
Omarion Hampton
40%
Omarion Hampton has a 40% chance to score a touchdown against Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6, the 28th highest on this week's board. Los Angeles Chargers are projected for 17.3 points in 67°F with 12 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 50, receptions 2.0.
Touchdown breakdown
17.3Projected team points
1.8Expected team TDs
27%Share of team TD chances
−3%KC defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
3TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
1.8 × 0.27 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.44 expected TDs = 36% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 40% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
8Omarion HamptonRB, LAC vs KCRushing yards: 50 proj, avg 57
39%
60.8Projected plays
›45%Run rate
›27.5Team carries
›46%Carry share
›12.6Carries
›3.7Yards per carry
›47Model
›50Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
−6%Game script
−5%KC run D
−1%KC vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 18Avg line 56.5Projection 50Ceiling 81
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 56.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
8Omarion HamptonRB, LAC vs KCReceptions: 2.0 proj, avg 2.0
32%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›7%Target share
›2.3Targets
›86%Catch rate
›2.0Model
›2.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
−2%KC vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.2Avg line 2.5Projection 2.0Ceiling 3.8
The ring shows a
32% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58% | 63% | 42% | 35% | 30% |
The matchup
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City ChiefsSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.