WR, Los Angeles Chargers
15
Ladd McConkey
17%
Ladd McConkey has a 17% chance to score a touchdown against Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6, the 151st highest on this week's board. Los Angeles Chargers are projected for 17.3 points in 67°F with 12 mph wind. The model projects receptions 3.4, receiving yards 44.
Touchdown breakdown
17.3Projected team points
1.8Expected team TDs
10%Share of team TD chances
−20%KC defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
1.8 × 0.10 × 0.80 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.14 expected TDs = 13% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 17% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
15Ladd McConkeyWR, LAC vs KCReceptions: 3.4 proj, avg 3.6
44%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.3Targets
›63%Catch rate
›3.4Model
›3.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
−12%KC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 1.0Avg line 3.5Projection 3.4Ceiling 5.8
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
15Ladd McConkeyWR, LAC vs KCReceiving yards: 44 proj, avg 48
44%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.3Targets
›63%Catch rate
›3.4Receptions
›12.6Yards per catch
›42Model
›44Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
−12%KC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 47.5Projection 44Ceiling 78
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 47.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49% | 46% | 88% | 34% | – |
The matchup
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City ChiefsSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.