QB, Los Angeles Chargers
10
Justin Herbert
17%
Justin Herbert has a 17% chance to score a touchdown against Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6, the 148th highest on this week's board. Los Angeles Chargers are projected for 17.3 points in 67°F with 12 mph wind. The model projects passing yards 215, rushing yards 25.
Touchdown breakdown
17.3Projected team points
1.8Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
−20%KC defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
1.8 × 0.09 × 0.80 × 1.00 × 1.04 =
0.13 expected TDs = 12% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 17% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
10Justin HerbertQB, LAC vs KCPassing yards: 215 proj, avg 206
58%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Pass attempts
›6.5Yards per attempt
›218Model
›215Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 154Avg line 205.5Projection 215Ceiling 275
The ring shows a
58% chance he goes over 205.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Justin HerbertQB, LAC vs KCRushing yards: 25 proj, avg 30
39%
60.8Projected plays
›45%Run rate
›27.5Team carries
›18%Carry share
›4.8Carries
›4.8Yards per carry
›23Model
›25Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
−6%Game script
−5%KC run D
−15%KC vs QBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 3Avg line 29.5Projection 25Ceiling 47
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 29.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
The matchup
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City ChiefsSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.